Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Goldman Sachs statistical model for predicting the outcome of the 2014 World Cup

To be clear, our model does not use any information on the quality of teams or individual players that is not reflected in a team’s track record. For example, if a key player who was responsible for a team’s recent successes is injured, this will have no bearing on our predictions. There is also no role for human judgment as the approach is purely statistical.

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